Here we are in December, just a few weeks away from closing the books on another year of real estate sales activity on Kauai. Once again this coming January, I will be putting together my comprehensive year-end market report analyzing current market trend activity and comparing it to activity of the past 10 years, but here’s a sneak peak at the top sales trends and story lines that are still fully developing:
Total sales volume for single-family homes is already in excess of $480 million for 2015, a substantial increase over the $404 million total in 2014 and $309 million in 2013. By year end, it is expected that the total sales volume for the island will surpass the $500 million mark for the first time since 2005, when $564 million was realized. Despite this dramatic increase in total sales volume, we are on track to realize a total number of sales very similar to that of 2014 and 2013, which draws attention to the current $87,000 increase in median sales price this year – $620,000 YTD vs. $533,000 in 2014.
While the single-family home market has flourished, the condominium market has realized much more modest improvement this year. The current sales volume total of $135 million is already above the 2014 total of $129 million, and the median sales price has increased from $345,000 in 2014 to $370,000 YTD.
There is no healthier market on the island than that of the North Shore, which is not only realizing the quickest absorption rates on the island, but is also realizing the largest gains in number of sales, total sales volume AND median sales price.
Total sales volume for single-family homes is already in excess of $252 million, an amount that is more than half of the current all-island total, and also an amount surpassing the largest annual total on record! This huge volume of sales is attributable to both the highest number of sales in one year since 2005 (126 YTD vs. 162 in 2005), and the highest median sales price figure since 2007 ($1,130,000 YTD vs. $1,174,900 in 2007). Both the number sales total and median sales price total for 2015 YTD are approximately 16% increases over 2014 totals, and the exponential effect of these combined increases is a total sales volume figure that is already 65% greater than that realized in all of 2014.
Although the single-family home market on the North Shore is setting new records in sales activity, the condominium market is still recovering but at a much more modest pace. The $50 million in sales activity YTD already surpasses the $46 million total in 2014 and is the highest total since 2008, but is still very depressed compared to the totals ranging from $80M – $138M in the mid-2000’s. Total number of sales, currently 84, are less than last year’s total of 86 but are on track to slightly improve over last year. The median sales price of condos so far this year has improved a fair amount, however, where the current estimate of $541,250 is a 13.5% increase over the 2014 total of $477,000.
The South Shore single-family home market is not nearly as healthy as the that of the North Shore, but values are still trending in an upward direction. The YTD median sales price total of $680,000 is much improved over the 2014 total of $617,000, although the total number of sales and total sales volume for the area are still slightly below last year’s totals. By year-end, I would expect all metrics to show very similar results to those realized in 2014.
Relatively speaking, the South Shore condo market has demonstrated to be the more improved market, compared to single-family homes. With 85 total sales YTD (vs. 72 in 2014), and $39M in total sales volume YTD (vs. $38M in 2014), year-end totals should reflect very reasonable improvements year-over-year, even though the current estimate of median sales price shows virtually no change.
Single-family home sales activity on the East Side is on track to continue its very gradual improvement since the downturn. Total sales volume is already slightly higher than 2014, thanks to a 6% increase in median sales price this year versus last. Although the current number of sales (146) are still below last year’s total (154), I would expect the year-end total to be slightly higher, and still very much “on par” with the totals of 160 and 161 realized in 2012 and 2013, respectively.
The condominium market on the East Side has not realized much change year-over-year, but is still on track to be much improved when compared to the downturn years of 2010 – 2012. Total number of sales YTD is 57, still well below the 2014 total of 81, but the median sales price for the area has increased 10% this year, which should put the year-end sales volume total close, but likely just shy of the 2014 total of $26 million.
Want to receive a copy of my comprehensive 2015 Kauai Real Estate Market Report once it is completed? Simply fill out the form below: